You may have seen this Comm
Week Intl. article already, but I believe that it is valuable to post it here as
a stimulant for discussion.*Posted with permission of the co-author:
*Joanne
Taaffe, Senior Editor
*Communications Week International
GSM Association in
urgent scramble for IP addresses
By Nick Ingelbrecht and Joanne Taaffe
20 March
2000
The GSM Association has tabled a request for a huge allocation of Internet
address space to support the rollout of general packet radio services (GPRS) later
this year.
Larger-than-expected rollout plans for 2.5-generation mobile networks
have taken the industry by surprise, leaving only weeks for Internet governance bodies
to agree to deliver 32 million IP addresses to increasingly desperate representatives
of GSM interests. Industry observers fear that failure to meet the allocations could
severely hinder the future development of mobile commerce activity.
Without IP
addresses, GPRS network subscribers will not be able to browse the Web or use other
new mobile data and mobile commerce services. And with the first commercial GPRS
rollouts due to take place in Asia and Europe from the middle of this year, GPRS
operators could be "staring down the barrel of a gun," according to Internet registrars.
The
GSM Association has asked the Reseaux IP Europeens (RIPE), the Amsterdam-based regional
Internet registry for Europe, for a decision within two months.
The request has
been described as the tip of an iceberg that could make "a very large dent" in the
available Internet Protocol version 4 address space, according to registrars in the
United States and the Asia Pacific region.
The initial request is equivalent to
two "/8" network blocks or 0.8% of the total IPv4 32-bit address space. This would
provide up to 32 million IP addresses, although some fear that a full rollout of
GPRS Internet roaming could entail up to 1 billion IP addresses, since GPRS terminals
may require multiple IP addresses.
John Hoffman, the GSM Association's director
for GPRS and data services, said such a large block of IP addresses is needed to
facilitate seamless Internet access while customers roam between different GPRS networks.
GPRS
terminals may require separate IP addresses for static and for mobile roaming applications,
although the precise number will depend upon how operators deploy their services.
"I
would not say it jeopardizes [GPRS rollout]," said Hoffman. "We are trying to find
a long-term solution rather than a short-term fix."
But David Conrad, director
of engineering for registrar Nominum Inc., of Redwood City, California, said that
GPRS operators are "staring down the barrel of a gun."
"They will deploy this stuff
by the end of the summer for the entirety of the U.K. and I am skeptical," said Conrad.
"How many [mobile data] supporting handsets do they have?"
There may be a little
more breathing space than Nominum's Conrad imagines, although not much. Equipment
vendors say they won't reach volume production of handsets until later this year.
Wireless
operators will not, moreover, have recourse to dynamically allocating IP addresses.
Whereas PC users can be given a new IP address each time they log on, allowing a
single IP address to be shared among many people, the cellular industry expects GPRS
users to be logged on almost permanently, so that they can receive services such
as electronic mail.
This means that each GPRS or third-generation mobile terminal
will need an IP address of its own, said Joe Barrett, director of marketing for 3G
mobility at equipment vendor Nokia Oyj in Finland.
RIPE and the GSM Association
have now formed a working party to study the issue.
"We are not under any specific
timeframe," said Hoffman, "but with [a projected] 80 million subscribers in four
years, we hope to get it right first time."
But given the rapidly dwindling supply
of IPv4 Internet addresses, registrars are concerned not to allocate large numbers
of addresses without assurances that they are going to be used in a reasonable timeframe,
and that they will be used to connect to the Internet.
Without a substantial allocation
of new IP addresses, GPRS operators would have to roll out services using fragments
of available IP address lists, which would not be sufficient for wide take-up.
Part
of the problem, according to Nokia's Barrett, is that the allocation of IPv4 addresses
was poorly administered, as no-one foresaw such a demand for them. This has resulted
in a dearth of addresses for European companies.
"Most of the [IPv4] addresses
have been given to U.S. companies," said Barrett. "They've been given larger blocks."
As
a result, U.S. companies are less concerned about running out of IPv4 addresses,
according to Barrett. "In Europe there will be an issue a lot sooner," said Barrett.
In
theory, IP version 6 will provide a long-term fix to the shortage of Internet address
space, because it will have sufficient capacity to provide 4,000 IP addresses for
each Angstrom of the earth's surface.
Even so, potential corporate customers for
mobile data will not be easy to convert to IPv6, even where it is widely available.
"Most
... corporate networks and solutions rely on routers built on IPv4 capabilities,"
said Mike Short, chairman of the Mobile Data Association, in London. "We can't ignore
what's out there today."
And there are unresolved technical and standardization
issues between the protocol and wireless networks, as well as a general lack of interest
among operators to implementing IPv6 commercially.
"If everyone knew how horrible
it is going to be, people would jump up and do something," said Steve Deering, co
chair of the Internet Engineering TaskForce's IPv6 Working Group.
Prof Xing Li,
of the China Education and Research NetworkCentre, at Tsinghua University, said that
if Internet usage continues to expand at current growth rates, China alone will need
more than 1.2 billion IP addresses by 2003.
China Mobile Communications Corp.,
the country's largest mobile operator, has already made tentative enquiries about
IP address space and has plans to roll out GPRS services from the middle of this
year.
But no-one is sure how quickly the stocks of IPv4 addresses will be depleted.
"Estimates
about when IPv4 will run out is between 2002 and 2012," said Nokia's Barrett.
However,
Nokia expects that there will be 1 billion mobile phones on the market worldwide
by 2002, of which 60% will be Internet-enabled.
And Richard Jimmerson, registration
services supervisor for the American Registry for Internet Numbers, which is based
in Chantilly, Virginia, said the GPRS request had the potential to deplete significantly
available Internet address space.
"I think we are past the time when on the basis
of fairly minimal data you can get large allocations [of IP addresses]," said Paul
Wilson, director general of the Asia Pacific Network Information Centre (APNIC),
based in Brisbane, Australia.
GSM industry projections suggest carriers would notionally
require 160 million IP addresses by 2003, equivalent to five /8 blocks.
This is
equivalent to around twice the entire address space allocated by APNIC within the
Asia Pacific region so far, and would entail making "a very large dent in available
address space," according to Wilson.
Nokia believes that the stampede for IP addresses
will not happen this summer. Although the Finnish equipment manufacturer has about
30 customers who are trialing GPRS systems in Europe, and who have plans for a commercial
rollout of services later this year, uptake will be limited by a lack of handsets.
"There
are still not a lot of mobiles available," said Barret. "Volume mobiles will come
in the first quarter of 2001."