Re: [dssa] please review: a summary of the "threat events" conversation on the call yesterday
Mikey, all, I think our discussion has been covered perfectly. Thanks Mikey. However, what is newly stated ("Dimensions of the analysis" - paragraph) will - to my point of view - still need some overlooking in its definition, in particular for example "Adverse impact" and Vulnerabilities. Best regards Joerg > Von: "Mike O'Connor" <mike@xxxxxxxxxx> > An: dssa@xxxxxxxxx > Datum: 24.02.2012 22:14 > Betreff: [dssa] please review: a summary of the "threat events" conversation on the call yesterday > Gesendet von: owner-dssa@xxxxxxxxx > > hi all, > > i just want to take a moment to summarize the conversation we had on the DSSA call yesterday. i know that sometimes this process > feels like we're working really hard and making really small advances. but when things are hard like that, it often means we're > all doing a lot of learning -- and then there are times when things suddenly snap into clear focus. i'm feeling like like that > happened this week and i want to push this out to the rest of you for review and comment. > > please take a look at this note, comment about it on the list over the next few days, and join us next Thursday to see if we can > arrive at a consensus view. > > much of our struggle has focused on the list of threat-events that we want to evaluate and we've dramatically simplified that list > (mostly by removing variables that we can evaluate separately). here's the list we've been evaluating for the last month or so, > followed by the new version that we've come to as of yesterday: > > Old Threat Event list > > TE-10 Disrupts a "global" zone file (.COM/.NET/.UK/.DE etc.) > TE-20 Disrupts a "lesser" zone file (that is not outsourced to a major provider) > TE-30 Root zone -- is published incorrectly > TE-40 Root zone -- is not published > TE-50 Disrupts the IANA zone file > TE-60 Disrupts DNSSEC from a "Major" DNSSEC provider > TE-70 Disrupts DNSSEC for a TLD zone > TE-80 Disrupts Critical DNS support files > TE-90 Disrupts provisioning systems between registries and registrars (the result being that registrars can't add/change/delete > zones from the TLD) > > New Threat Event list > > TE-100 Zone -- does not resolve > TE-110 Zone -- is incorrect > TE-120 Zone -- security is compromised > > as you can see, our new list is much broader and leaves out several ideas that we were evaluating in the earlier version of the > list. one of the biggest things that's left out of this list is the notion of "size" or "range" of a zone. here's the big > observation that leads us to do that: > > Impact depends on your perspective > > A zone that is not resolving, is incorrect, or has security that is compromised is always a significant problem to registrants and > users within the zone. But the impact of the loss of a given zone on visitors to that zone or the whole internet varies with the > number of users of that zone (eg .COM or the root) > > thus, what we were trying to do with our more-detailed threat-event list was combining two ideas -- threat-event and scale. we've > concluded that trying to evaluate that "impact" issue has gotten us sidetracked from our real mission and that we can move forward > by limiting that evaluation to worst-case scenarios. > > the way we'll do that is to modify the Impact scales that we'll use to evaluate the threat-events to focus on the worst case, > since we're chartered to look at "the actual level, frequency and severity of threats to the DNS" rather than evaluating the > relative harm that may happen between different zones. with that in mind, here are the revised versions of the three scales that > we'll use to evaluate these threat-events: > > New version of Table H2 -- Threat event - worst-case type of impact (more than one may apply) > (multiple scenarios to be documented in report-text) > A -- Damage to or incapacitation of a critical infrastructure sector. > B -- Relational harms, e.g.: > Damage to trust relationships. > Damage to reputation (and hence future or potential trust relationships). > C -- Harm to individuals, e.g.: > Injury or loss of life. > Damage to image or reputation. > D -- Harm to assets, e.g.: > Damage to or loss of physical facilities. > Damage to or loss of information systems or networks. > Damage to or loss of information technology or equipment. > Damage to or of loss of information assets. > E -- Harm to operations, e.g.: > Inability to perform current missions/business functions. > Direct financial costs. > Harms (e.g., financial costs, sanctions) due to noncompliance with laws, contracts or regulations. > > New version of Table H3 --Threat event - worst-case severity of impact > (multiple scenarios to be documented in report-text) > 10 -- Multiple severe or catastrophic adverse effects > 8 -- A severe or catastrophic effect > 5 -- Serious adverse effect > 3 -- Limited adverse effect > 1 -- Negligible adverse effect > New version of Table H4 -- Threat event - worst-case range of effects > > 10 -- sweeping, involving almost all of the users of the DNS (100%? >1,000,000,000?) > 8 -- extensive, involving most of the users of the DNS (80%? >100,000,000?) > 5 --wide-ranging, involving a significant portion of users of the DNS (30%? >10,000,000?) > 3 --limited, involving some of the users of the DNS (10%?, 1,000,000?) > 1 -- minimal, involving few if any of the users of the DNS (1%?, 100,000?) > > by using our refined/simplified list of threat-events (a zone doesn't resolve, is inaccurate or has security that is compromised) > and applying these worst-case scales we can say that all three of those threat-events are extremely severe in the worst-case and > move on to the next part of our analysis. which gets me to the last breakthrough idea of this "big week full of breakthrough > ideas" which to remind ourselves of the following (from the methodology): > > Dimensions of the analysis > > Threat-events (what happens) should not be confused with: > Adverse impact - the likelihood of things that will result from the threat-event > Vulnerabilities - the severity of things that allow it to happen > Predisposing conditions - the pervasiveness of things that help prevent it from happening > Adversarial threat-sources - the capability, intent, or targeting of the people initiating it, or > Non-adversarial threat-sources - the range of effect of a non-adversarial event that initiates it > Controls and mitigation - actions to reduce likelihood and impact > > i'd like to have two conversations about this over the next few days. > > for those of you who were on the call -- have i got this right? did i miss something? > > for those of you who were NOT on the call -- what do you think of this idea? is it clear? is it right? > > looking forward to your thoughts. > > mikey > > - - - - - - - - - > phone 651-647-6109 > fax 866-280-2356 > web http://www.haven2.com > handle OConnorStP (ID for public places like Twitter, Facebook, Google, etc.) Attachment:
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